Many people have asked me if there is a way to beat the odds and win at horse racing without handicapping the races. It is hard enough to beat the races with a good methodology and knowledge of the horses so just winning by luck or with a betting system is pretty hard. But I will try to outline a simple way to help you to improve your chances, though there are no guarantees and this should just be considered for entertainment.
In other words, you probably won’t get rich with this method, but maybe you’ll come out a few bucks ahead or at least lose less in the long run and have some fun picking some winners without a lot of reading and book work. If you like action this is a good way to play a lot of races.
The whole idea of making a profit at the race track is to beat the crowd and consequently, the favorite of the crowd, since that is where most of the money is wagered. Favorites win about 30-35% of the time, so in about 2 out of 3 races the favorite loses and the crowd’s money is distributed among the people who backed one of the other horses (obviously the one that won).
It might help you to know the odds of one of the other horses winning. The second favorite (the horse at the second lowest odds) usually wins about 20% of the time. The third favorite a little less and so forth. Of course it matters how many horses are entered in the race, but you get the idea. If you just randomly bet on the horse with the second lowest odds in every race in the course of enough races to make a statistically valid sample, you’ll win about 20% of the time. But of course, as usual, between the track’s takeout and breakage, you’ll wind up losing in the end.
A lot of people know that the favorite wins about a third of the time, but did you know that the odds on the favorite determine just how likely it is in win? All favorites do not have an equal chance of winning. The lower the odds, the more likely a horse is to win. So a favorite at low odds of say, 3-5 is much more likely to win than a favorite at 5-2. My advice, therefore, is to beat the favorite that is less likely to win.
For instance, let’s say there is a race with a favorite at 5-2, and the second favorite is at 7-2 and the third favorite is at 7-2 and the fourth favorite is at 9-2. The favorite in the race has less than a third of a chance of winning so one of those other horses is likely to win, right? A horse going off at 7-2 will pay a nice mutuel of $9 for every two dollars bet on that runner. A horse at 9-2 will pay $11. That means that of the next three horses in the race who have a chance to win, the lowest payoff is $9. You could make a $2 bet on each of those three horses and bet against the lukewarm favorite and have an excellent chance of winning. If one of the horses at 7-2 wins you’ll get $9. You will have spent $6 to back the three horses so your profit is 50% above your costs for the bets. On top of that, you bet against a horse that has less than a 30% chance of winning!
Think about that, you get a 50% profit and the horse you are betting against is likely to lose. Obviously another horse you haven’t bet on could win the race, but you have covered the most likely winners with your bet. The key to this betting strategy is to have more ways to win than to lose and betting on three horses with odds almost as good as the one horse you are betting against certainly tips the scales in your favor.
But there is more to it than that because you can tip the scales a little more in your favor. I recommend you go to an otb or racebook where there are many tracks being simulcast. Look at the odds boards and find races with a short field of six or seven horses or less where the favorite is going off at over 2-1 odds. Wait until it is almost post time and bet on the next two or three horses at the shortest odds to the favorite.
I want to stress that this is not a get rich quick scheme and not guaranteed to make money. It is meant for recreational betting and fun only. Try it on paper first if you like. But if you like a lot of action and don’t want to spend hours handicapping, this method will have you cashing tickets all day, simply by reading the toteboard and knowing that the favorite is likely to lose. Not only that, but when you bet on a race you’ll have several chances of winning in each race and you will have beat the crowd and the favorite. This is just one of the simpler ways that I have taught people to enjoy horseracing and how to use a good system to bet.
Source by Bill Peterson